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Final Week Playoff Breakdown!
Here is the easy part….
Scorpions are #1, win or lose.
Blaze are #2 with a win or an Arsenal loss.
Arsenal is #2 with a win and a Blaze loss, or #3 with a loss or a Blaze win.
Bengals will be #4 even with a loss as long as Victors don’t win by 80+.
Nightmare can only get out of the #12 spot by winning and having the Brigade lose twice, or by catching up 30 points in the points differential race with the Brigade.
The interesting part is what happens if the Red Knights beat the Victors and Compound doesn’t win both games.
1. Compound will be the #5 if they win both their games. If Compound loses once and Victors win, Victors will be guaranteed #5.
2. If Compound beat the Raiders and lose to the Brigade and the Victors win, the Victors will be #5 and Compound would be #6.
a. If Trojans lose to Arsenal and Stallions lose to Bengals, it’s a tie between Red Knights, Stallions and Raiders. Each split with the other two, so point differential would decide seeds 7, 8 and 9. Stallions are +21, Raiders are -53 and Red Knights are -70.
b. If Trojans win and Stallions lose, then there is a 4-way tie with Trojans, Red Knights, Stallions and Raiders. Trojans were 0-3 against these opponents, so point differential would decide 7-9 and Trojans would finish #10.
3. If Compound lose to Raiders and defeat the Brigade and the Victors win, the Victors will be the #5 and Raiders will be #6. Compound falls to #7, Win or lose the Stallions would be #8, with the Red Knights taking #9 over the #10 Trojans regardless of the Trojan result due to Opening Day win.
4. If the Red Knights win and Compound loses to the Brigade and beats the Raiders and the Stallions lose to the Bengals, the Red Knights, Compound and Victors would all be tied for 5th. In that case, Red Knights and Compound both defeated the Victors, so the Victors would be 7th, and the Red Knights and Compound would come down to points differential. Right now, the Red Knights are -70 and Compound is -75. The Raiders would be the #8 seed, and the Stallions would be the #9, and the Trojans would be #10 (see below).
a. If the Trojans, Brigade and Nightmare lose to the higher seeds, the Raiders and Stallions would finish 3-6, with the Raiders getting the #8 and the Stallions getting #9. The Trojans would finish 10th (head to head win over the Brigade), Brigade #11 and Nightmare #12.
b. If the Trojans win and Brigade lose to Scorpions, the Trojans would finish 3-6 with the Raiders and Stallions. The Raiders would be the #8 with wins over the other two, and the Stallions would get #9 due to head to head win over Trojans.
c. If the Trojans win and the Brigade beat the Scorpions, we would have a 4 way tie. The Raiders would be #8 with a 3-0 head to head record, #9 Stallions would be 2-1, the #10 Trojans would be 1-2 and the #11 Brigade would be 0-3.
5. If the Red Knights win and Compound loses to the Brigade and beats the Raiders and the Stallions beat the Bengals, the Red Knights, Compound, Stallions and Victors would all be tied for 5th. Compound would be 2-0 against the teams they played head to head, the Red Knights would be 1-1, the Stallions and Victors would be 1-2. In this case, Compound would be #5, Red Knights #6, and the Victors would be #7 over the #8 Stallions due to their 12-6 victory on May 31.
6. If the Red Knights win and Compound defeats the Brigade and loses to the Raiders and the Bengals beat the Stallions, there would be a 4 way tie for 5th. In that case, the Red Knights would be 2-0 against the teams they played head-to-head, Compound would be 1-1 and the Raiders and the Victors would be 1-2. That would make the Red Knights the #5, Compound #6, Victors #7 and the Raiders #8 due to the Victors win over the Raiders.
7. If the Red Knights and Stallions both win, and Compound beats the Brigade and loses to the Raiders, then we would have a 5-way tie for 5th. In that situation, Compound and the Red Knights would be 2-1, the Victors and Raiders would be 2-2, and the Stallions would be 1-3. The Red Knights and Compound would come down to points differential for #5 and #6, the Victors beat the Raiders in week 2 to get #7 and force the Raiders into #8, and the Stallions would be #9.
8. If Compound loses twice and Red Knights and Stallions win, the Red Knights, Stallions, Victors and Raiders tie for 5th. The Red Knights and Victors would be 2-1, the Stallions and Raiders 1-2. The Red Knights would finish 5th, Victors #6, Raiders #7 and Stallions #8 due to head to head victories.
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Playoff Breakdown!
Since the Fortune Teller has disappeared, I figured this is as good a place as any to put up our end-of-the-season playoff scenarios. There is a split between the levels of teams this season in the MDFFA, and there are more possibilities of ties this season than ever before. Let’s start with the top of the standings…
Scorpions (7-0, vs Compound and Brigade). With a huge lead in point differential over the Arsenal and a win against the Blaze, the Scorpions will be the #1 seed unless they lose both games and either the Arsenal and Blaze win out.
Blaze (6-1, vs Bengals and Nightmare). If the Blaze win out, they are either the #1 or #2 seed, due to win over the Arsenal.
Arsenal (6-1, vs Raiders and Trojans). They can jump to #2 if they win out and Blaze lose a game.
Bengals (5-2, vs Blaze and Stallions). If the Bengals win out and Arsenal lose at least one, they can jump to #2 since they’d have wins over the Blaze and a huge point differential advantage over the Arsenal.
In the event of a three way tie between the Blaze, Arsenal and Bengals, Arsenal would be your most likely #4 (loss to Blaze, points to Bengals), and the winner of the Blaze-Bengals game would end up #2.
Compound (3-3, vs Scorpions, Brigade, Raiders). Compound cannot break the top 4 unless they win out and the Bengals lose twice. They have losses against the Blaze, Arsenal and Bengals. If they win out, they would be the #5 seed. If they don’t, the possibilities are listed below.
Red Knights (3-4, vs Stallions and Victors). Cannot finish in top 4. Can take 5th if they win out and Compound loses once (depending on point differential) or more than once. Owns tiebreaker over Raiders, and would own tiebreakers over Victors and Stallions with wins in their last two games.
Victors (3-4, vs Nightmare and Red Knights). Cannot finish in top 4 due to huge point differential disadvantage to Bengals. Can take 5th if they win out and Compound loses twice. Has tiebreaker over Raiders due to win on March 29.
Raiders (3-4, vs Arsenal and Compound). Cannot finish in top 4 due to loss to Bengals. Can finish 5th if they win out, and Victors and Red Knights lose once.
McKenzie’s Stallions (2-5, vs Red Knights and Victors). Cannot finish in top 5 due to losses to Compound and Raiders. Can finish 6th if they win out and either Compound or Raiders lose out.
Brigade (1-5, vs Trojans, Compound and Scorpions). Cannot finish in top 5 due to losses to Victors, Red Knights and point differential deficit with Raiders. Can finish 6th if they win out, Compound loses more than once, and Raiders and either Red Knights/Victors lose twice and Stallions lose at least once.
Trojans (1-6, vs Brigade and Arsenal). Cannot finish in top 6. Can finish 8th if they win out, and Compound and Red Knights lose out.
Nightmare (1-6, vs Victors, Blaze). Most likely the #12 seed. Would own a tiebreaker over Red Knights or Victors if either loses out and Nightmare sweep their last two.
So what’s going to happen?
- The Scorpions will win at least one to take the #1 seed.
- The Blaze-Bengals game will decide the #2 seed. If the Blaze win, they are #2. If they lose, the spot is the Arsenal’s to lose, with the Bengals taking #3 and the Blaze dropping to #4, if the Bengals beat the Stallions.
- If the Blaze beat the Bengals, Arsenal is pretty set in the #3 spot, and the Bengals drop to #4.
- Compound will lose once (probably to a heavily favored Scorpion team), and then the game vs the Raiders becomes a deciding point. If they can keep close against the Scorpions and win the other, they should be #5.
- If Compound gets blown out in either game and the Red Knights win out, they will be the #5.
- The winner of the Red Knights-Victors game is most likely to be the #6 team. The loser would then be the most likely #7.
- The Nightmare will finish 12th with a loss to the Blaze and a win from either the Brigade or the Trojans.
How about this scenario though… (for entertainment purposes only)
Next week, the Scorpions beat Compound by 12, Arsenal wins a tight game over the Raiders, the Bengals defeat the Blaze, the Red Knights over the Stallions by 7, the Trojans over the Brigade and the Victors beat the Nightmare. That would leave:
- Compound opening up on Sunday 6/14 knowing that if they need to win both and trying to score as much as possible in case they get into a differential race with the Red Knights. Of course, the Raiders would be playing for the top spot in the Consolation bracket as well!
- The Scorpions cheering for the Trojans to upset the Arsenal to keep the Blaze from dropping to the #4 spot.
- The Victors and Red Knights playing for the right to play in the Championship bracket, with the loser becoming the likely top seed in the Consolation bracket.
- And the Bengals trying to defeat a fired-up McKenzie’s Stallions squad to hold on to the #3 spot.
No matter what happens, this might be the most parity we've ever had in this league, and the fact that our teams are doing well in outside tournaments is a testament to the level of play here. Good luck to everyone over the next 3 weeks.
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