We talk a lot on our team about working counts, seeing pitches, probability, and percentages. I found a table on the web that clearly describes in exact numbers what we're trying to accomplish by working pitchers deep into counts. Please take some time and consider these statistics as they can provide a wealth of information if used correctly.
Count wOBA BABIP AVG OBP SPC PA
At 3-0 0.700 0.343 0.401 0.946 0.789 3,113
At 3-1 0.564 0.307 0.347 0.681 0.604 9,013
At 2-0 0.405 0.299 0.343 0.343 0.622 4,882
At 3-2 0.403 0.303 0.230 0.470 0.380 22,183
At 1-0 0.388 0.310 0.342 0.342 0.574 13,604
At 0-0 0.381 0.311 0.341 0.341 0.555 21,312
At 2-1 0.375 0.301 0.332 0.332 0.551 10,118
At 1-1 0.362 0.301 0.328 0.328 0.522 15,772
At 0-1 0.346 0.299 0.321 0.321 0.487 16,002
At 2-2 0.214 0.288 0.195 0.195 0.308 22,761
At 1-2 0.188 0.282 0.177 0.177 0.260 23,762
At 0-2 0.177 0.282 0.167 0.167 0.243 13,198
As you can see, a huge difference in BABIP on 3-0 counts and 2-strike counts. More importantly in most cases however are “pass-through” counts, which I’ll present here:
Through Count wOBA BABIP AVG OBP SPC PA
Through 3-0 0.570 0.313 0.296 0.725 0.496 8,131
Through 3-1 0.490 0.303 0.281 0.587 0.475 16,168
Through 2-0 0.443 0.301 0.290 0.494 0.493 25,514
Through 3-2 0.403 0.303 0.230 0.470 0.380 22,183
Through 2-1 0.372 0.296 0.262 0.397 0.433 37,414
Through 1-0 0.371 0.300 0.280 0.382 0.459 72,841
Through 0-0 0.332 0.299 0.268 0.328 0.430 175,638
Through 1-1 0.314 0.295 0.248 0.315 0.396 68,748
Through 2-2 0.290 0.294 0.207 0.304 0.333 37,782
Through 0-1 0.283 0.294 0.239 0.276 0.372 81,511
Through 1-2 0.237 0.289 0.191 0.237 0.294 45,390
Through 0-2 0.212 0.287 0.183 0.207 0.275 30,514
Longer At-Bats Work
We stress playing the game with emphasis on working percentages into a player's favor. Accordingly, we talk about being patient at the plate - working counts, getting good pitches to hit. This information is from Baseballprospectus.com from an article that specifically addresses just this point. You'll notice that until the very end, strikeouts decrease as a batter sees more pitches, walks increase.:
NP SO_R BB_R SO/BB
3 0.1465 0 ---
4 0.2340 0.1294 1.808
5 0.2606 0.1613 1.616
6 0.2654 0.2024 1.311
7 0.2390 0.2306 1.036
8 0.2247 0.2413 0.931
9 0.2132 0.2466 0.865
10 0.2073 0.2463 0.842
11 0.2046 0.2491 0.821
12 0.2019 0.2718 0.743
13 0.2045 0.2386 0.857
14 0.1639 0.1639 1.000
15 0.2143 0.3214 0.667
