Entering the Draft Early: A RISKY PROPOSITION
ENTERING THE DRAFT EARLY: A RISKY PROPOSITION
In 1990 the NFL began to allow underclass players who had met certain
requirements to “declare” themselves eligible for the league’s entry draft.
Over the past 11 years, as shown below, more than 360 underclass players were
granted draft eligibility. Of that group, two-thirds were drafted and just over ten
percent signed contracts as undrafted free agents. However, almost one out of
every four underclass players were never offered an NFL contract.
Many underclass players attempt to enter the league early because they believe, or
have been told, that they will be drafted in the first round. Unfortunately, for too
many players with such high expectations, reality has been harsh.
Of the eligible underclass players who were drafted, over forty percent went in the
first round. But, when viewed as a percentage of all players who declared, there
were only ten more picked in the first round than the number of players who never
were able to negotiate a contract with any club.
In probability terms, there’s been more than a 70% probability that any player who
enters the draft early will not be selected in the first round. And that’s a steep price
to pay when, for example, the average dollars earned for 2000 first round draftees is
more than $1.5-million a year as compared to less than $650-thousand a year for
second rounders or just over $200-thousand a season for undrafted free agents.
Nor is early entry rewarded when there can be a significant difference in the amount
earned between players selected at the top of a round versus those in the middle
and bottom of that same round. That extreme happened in 1990, the first year
underclass players entered the draft. Three first round picks that season were
running backs. One was a senior and he was the number two selection. Two junior
running backs also went in the first round, one at the seventeenth pick, the other at
number 24. The running back who was the number two pick in the draft played for
six seasons, was a starter his first two seasons, was injured in his third season,
became a backup and left the league after six seasons.
The first of the two junior running backs is still active after eleven seasons and the
other played eight seasons, all but one as a starter. And yet, the running back
picked number two in the draft, a senior, earned more than a million dollars a year
more than the two juniors in the initial contracts they signed.
No
Season Number Drafted % 1st % 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th-12th FA Contract
1990 35 19 54% 9 26% 3 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 16
1991 33 19 58% 4 12% 3 4 6 2 0 0 0 3 10
1992 34 24 71% 11 32% 3 1 1 3 0 4 0 12
1993 36 25 69% 10 28% 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 2 10
1994 26 23 88% 8 31% 6 4 1 3 1 0 0 3
1995 31 21 68% 10 32% 1 3 2 1 2 2 4 6
1996 25 17 68% 8 32% 2 3 2 1 1 0 7 1
1997 43 28 65% 13 30% 3 4 4 0 1 2 6 10
1998 31 18 58% 8 26% 2 3 0 2 2 1 4 9
1999 35 25 71% 10 29% 4 4 3 4 0 0 7 3
2000 32 20 63% 6 19% 5 4 2 1 0 2 5 7
Total 361 239 67% 97 27% 35 34 25 18 13 8 5 39 87
Avg 32.8 21.7 67% 8.8 27% 3.2 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.3 3.5 7.9
% 27% 10% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 4% 11% 24%
Same season, same round, same position. But the player who came into the league
as a senior made a lot more when he entered, and it took at least five seasons
before the juniors were able to catch up with the number two pick in terms of salary
earned.
The bottom line: Unless players receive a guarantee from the league—and they
provide just such a service—that he will be picked in the top ten players selected in
the first round, the probability is that he will do better by playing his final college
season.
A concluding note: Many times underclass players are warned by outsiders that they
should enter the draft early because of potential injury risks. “What if you blow out
your knee as a senior? Where will you be then?”
It turns out though that it’s hard to find real examples of that scenario occurring.
Over the past eleven years there have been a handful at most. And compared with
the earnings differential between those players who came out early versus those who
played their final season, once again the wiser course has been to wait until all
college eligibility is over.
M. J. Duberstein
NFLPA Director of Research
August 2000
UNDERCLASS PLAYERS: 1990-2000
1990 TOTAL 35
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 9 26%
SECOND 3 9%
THIRD 1 3%
FOURTH 1 3%
FIFTH 2 6%
SIXTH 1 3%
SEVENTH 0 0%
EIGHTH 0 0%
NINTH 1 3%
TENTH 0 0%
ELEVENTH 0 0%
TWELFTH 0 0%
UFA 0 0%
NO CONTRACT 16 46%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Bennett, Tony 1990 1 8
Carrier, Mark 1990 1 10 Y
George, Jeff 1990 1 10 Y
Hampton, Rodney 1990 1 8
Lathon, Lamar 1990 1 9
McCants, Keith 1990 1 6
Seau, Junior 1990 1 10 Y
Smith, Emmitt 1990 1 10 Y
Ware, Andre 1990 1 4
Cobb, Reggie 1990 2 5
Cox, Ron 1990 2 8
Hoard, Leroy 1990 2 10
Spindler, Marc 1990 3 9
Mitchell, Scott 1990 4 10 Y
Foster, Barry 1990 5 5
Wilson, Charles 1990 5 5
Wilson, Marcus 1990 6 4
Allen, Terry 1990 9 10
Avg Career Length 7.83 5
Banks, Braxston 1990 0
Borgognone, Dirk 1990 0 Y 0
Burkhalter, Eugene 1990 0
Cash, Danny 1990 0
Culberhouse, Mike 1990 0
Gaines, Brad 1990 0
Geathers, Thurman 1990 0
Gould, Octavious 1990 0
Harris, Major 1990 0
Haynes, Robert 1990 0
Klemp, Jeff 1990 0
Mefford, John 1990 0
Mongeau, Chris 1990 0
Morris, Leanard 1990 0
Petitpas, Chuck 1990 0
Price, Cornelius 1990 0
Tregellas, John 1990 0
Avg Career Length 0 0
1991 TOTAL 33
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 4 12%
SECOND 3 9%
THIRD 4 12%
FOURTH 6 18%
FIFTH 2 6%
SIXTH 0 17%
SEVENTH 0 0%
EIGHTH 0 0%
NINTH 0 0%
TENTH 0 0%
ELEVENTH 0 0%
TWELFTH 1 3%
UFA 3 9%
NO CONTRACT 10 30%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Marinovich, Todd 1991 1 3
Moore, Herman 1991 1 9 Y
Russell, Leonard 1991 1 6
Swann, Eric 1991 1 9 Y
Brown, Dennis 1991 2 7
Campbell, Jesse 1991 2 8
King, Ed 1991 2 5
Daniels, David 1991 3 2
Gardocki, Chris 1991 3 9 Y
Webb, Chuck 1991 3 1
Wilson, Robert 1991 3 4
Baldwin, Randy 1991 4 6
Carpenter, Rob 1991 4 5
Davis, Dexter 1991 4 5
Ismail, Raghib 1991 4 7 Y
Richards, Curvin 1991 4 3
Walker, Sammy 1991 4 4
Coates, Ben 1991 5 9 Y
Jones, Reginald 1991 5 4
Thompson, Ernie 1991 12 1
Avg Career Length 5.63 5
Beckham, Chris 1991 0
Bell, Elijah 1991 0
Blackmon, Chris 1991 0
Brown, Eric 1991 0
Duve, Ryan 1991 0
Lucas, Pete 1991 0
Newton, Sam 1991 0
Renners, Jerry 1991 0
Turner, Rob 1991 0
Vaughn, Jon 1991 0
Buchanan, Richard 1991 0 Y 3
Clark, Irvin 1991 0 Y 1
Love, Sean 1991 0 Y 4
Avg Career Length 2.67 0
1992 TOTAL 34
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 11 32%
SECOND 4 12%
THIRD 1 3%
FOURTH 1 3%
FIFTH 3 9%
SIXTH 1 3%
SEVENTH 0 0%
EIGHTH 1 3%
NINTH 1 3%
TENTH 0 0%
ELEVENTH 1 3%
TWELFTH 1 3%
UFA 0 0%
NO CONTRACT 11 32%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Buckely, Terrell 1992 1 8 Y
Coleman, Marco 1992 1 8 Y
Emtman, Steve 1992 1 5
Gilbert, Sean 1992 1 7 Y
Howard, Desmond 1992 1 8 Y
Maddox, Tommy 1992 1 4
McGlockton, Chester 1992 1 8 Y
Mitchell, Johnny 1992 1 5
Spellman, Alonzo 1992 1 7 Y
Whitfield, Bob 1992 1 8 Y
Williams, Darryl 1992 1 8 Y
Dronett, Shane 1992 2 8 Y
Lee, Amp 1992 2 8
Pickens, Carl 1992 2 8 Y
Collins, Todd 1992 3 7 Y
Hamilton, Keith 1992 4 8 Y
Bates, Michael 1992 6 7 Y
Sydner, Jeff 1992 6 4
White, Reggie 1992 6 4
Dwight,Reggie 1992 8 0
Miles, Ostell 1992 9 2
Royster, Mazio 1992 11 3
Randolph, Joseph 1992 12 0
Avg Career Length 5.87 13
Douglas, Curt 1992 0
Grant, Marcus 1992 0
Hughley, Chris 1992 0
Ikonikov, Alex 1992 0
Jones, Jay 1992 0
Moore, Michael 1992 0
O'Neill, Doug 1992 0
Pargo, Corey 1992 0
Pittman, Elliot 1992 0
Powell, Craig 1992 0
Wagner, Roosevelt 1992 0
Avg Career Length 0 0
1993 TOTAL 36
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 10 28%
SECOND 3 8%
THIRD 3 8%
FOURTH 3 8%
FIFTH 3 8%
SIXTH 2 6%
SEVENTH 1 3%
EIGHTH 0 0%
UFA 0 0%
NO CONTRACT 12 33%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Bates, Patrick 1993 1 3
Bettis, Jerome 1993 1 7 Y
Bledsoe, Drew 1993 1 7 Y
Carter, Tom 1993 1 7 Y
Conway, Curtis 1993 1 7 Y
Dawkins, Sean 1993 1 7 Y
Hearst, Garrison 1993 1 7 Y
Jones, Marvin 1993 1 7 Y
Renfro, Leonard 1993 1 2
Smith, Robert 1993 1 7 Y
Harper, Roger 1993 2 4
Means, Natrone 1993 2 7 Y
Williams, Kevin 1993 2 7
Hastings, Andre 1993 3 7 Y
Hobert, Billy Joe 1993 3 7 Y
Reid, Mike 1993 3 2
Brown, Derek 1993 4 5
Copeland, Russell 1993 4 6
Palmer, Sterling 1993 4 4
Truitt, Olanda 1993 5 5
Willis, James 1993 5 7 Y
Anderson, Richie 1993 6 7 Y
Wycheck, Frank 1993 6 7 Y
Henderson, Othello 1993 7 2
Avg Career Length 5.75 14
Akos, Patrick 1993 0
Battle, Keith 1993 0
Chaney, Don 1993 0
Gillard, Reginald "Bo" 1993 0
McClenton, Michael 1993 0
Noel, Dean 1993 0
Patton, Martin 1993 0
Rush, Kelly 1993 0
Tate, Walter 1993 0
Bobo, Phillip 1993 0 Y 2
Ridley, Lester 1993 0 Y 0
Williams, Renald 1993 0
Avg Career Length 1.0 0
1994 TOTAL 26
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 8 31%
SECOND 6 23%
THIRD 4 15%
FOURTH 1 4%
FIFTH 3 12%
SIXTH 1 4%
SEVENTH 0 0%
UFA 0 0%
NO CONTRACT 3 12%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Bowens, Timothy 1994 1 6 Y
Dilfer, Trent 1994 1 6 Y
Faulk, Marshell 1994 1 6 Y
Hill, Greg 1994 1 6
Johnson, Joe 1994 1 6 Y
Miller, Jamir 1994 1 6 Y
Wilkinson, Dan 1994 1 6 Y
Floyd, William 1994 1 6 Y
Bates, Mario 1994 2 6 Y
Bennett, Donnell 1994 2 6 Y
Levy, Charles 1994 2 3
Palmer, David 1994 2 6 Y
Scott, Darnay 1994 2 6 Y
Walker, Bruce 1994 2 1
Hegamin,George 1994 3 6 Y
Bostic, James 1994 3 2
Jones, Calvin 1994 3 3
Morris, Byron "Bam" 1994 3 5
Sawyer, Corey 1994 4 6
Goodwin, Marvin 1994 5 1
Harrison, Rodney 1994 5 6 Y
Ofodile, Anselm "A.J." 1994 5 4
Warren, Lamont 1994 6 6
Avg Career Length 5.00 13
Klinger, Jimmy 1994 0
McFadden, Dwight 1994 0
Woodard, Rodney 1994 0
Avg Career Length 0 0
1995 TOTAL 31
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 10 32%
SECOND 1 3%
THIRD 3 10%
FOURTH 2 6%
FIFTH 1 3%
SIXTH 2 6%
SEVENTH 2 6%
UFA 0 0%
NO CONTRACT 10 32%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Alexander, Derrick 1995 1 5 Y
Bush, Devin 1995 1 5 Y
Carter, Ki-Jana 1995 1 5
Jenkins, Trezelle 1995 1 3
Law, Ty 1995 1 5 Y
Mamula, Mike 1995 1 5 Y
Powell, Craig 1995 1 3
Salaam, Rashaan 1995 1 3
Sapp, Warren 1995 1 5 Y
Stringer, Korey 1995 1 5 Y
Taylor, Bobby 1995 2 5 Y
Martin, Curtis 1995 3 5 Y
Styles, Lorenzo 1995 3 5 Y
Vanover, Tamarick 1995 3 5 Y
Jackson, Jack 1995 4 2
Pinkney, Lovell 1995 4 1
Stewart, James 1995 5 5 Y
Clavelle, Shannon 1995 6 3
DeRamus, Lee 1995 6 2
Thomas, Johnny 1995 7 4
Walsh, John 1995 7 0
Avg Career Length 3.86 11
Black, Torey 1995 0
Black, Greg 1995 0 Y
Easter, Brian 1995 0
Fitzgerald, Brian 1995 0
Fortune, Elliot 1995 0 Y 2
Foster, Che 1995 0 Y
Grier, Profail 1995 0
Jackson, Brandell 1995 0
Landry, Greg 1995 0 Y
Robinson, Brian 1995 0
Avg Career Length 0.5 0
1996 TOTAL 25
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 8 32%
SECOND 2 8%
THIRD 3 12%
FOURTH 2 8%
FIFTH 1 4%
SIXTH 1 4%
SEVENTH 0 0%
UFA 0 0%
NO CONTRACT 7 28%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Anderson, Willie 1996 1 4 Y
Biakabutuka, Tim 1996 1 4 Y
Clemons, Duane 1996 1 4 Y
Glenn, Terry 1996 1 4 Y
Kennison, Eddie 1996 1 4 Y
Lewis, Ray 1996 1 4 Y
Phillips, Lawrence 1996 1 3
Upshaw, Regan 1996 1 4 Y
Brackens, Tony 1996 2 4 Y
McElroy, Leeland 1996 2 3
Moore, Jerald 1996 3 3 Y
Williams, Moe 1996 3 4 Y
Abdul-Jabbar, Karim 1996 3 4 Y
Langford, Jevon 1996 4 4 Y
Runyan, Jon 1996 4 4 Y
Guess, Terry 1996 5 0
Milloy, Lawyer 1996 6 4 Y
Avg Career Length 3.59 14
Bell, Ricky 1996 0 Y 2
Coleman, Jamie 1996 0 Y
Drayton, Keith 1996 0 Y
Johnson, Jermaine 1996 0 Y
Matthews, Clarence 1996 0 Y
Scott, Freddie 1996 0 Y 2
Shipman, Alfred 1996 0
Willis, Terrell 1996 0 Y
Avg Career Length 1.75 0
1997 TOTAL 43
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 13 30%
SECOND 3 7%
THIRD 5 12%
FOURTH 4 9%
FIFTH 0 0%
SIXTH 1 2%
SEVENTH 2 5%
UFA 5 12%
NO CONTRACT 13 30%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Anthony, Reidel 1997 1 3 Y
Boulware, Peter 1997 1 3 Y
Canty, Chris 1997 1 3 Y
Gonzalez, Tony 1997 1 3 Y
Green, Yatil 1997 1 3 Y
Hilliard, Ike 1997 1 3 Y
Jones, Walter 1997 1 3 Y
Lang, Kenard 1997 1 3 Y
Pace, Orlando 1997 1 3 Y
Pryce, Trevor 1997 1 3 Y
Rudd, Dwayne 1997 1 3 Y
Russell, Darrell 1997 1 3 Y
Springs, Shawn 1997 1 3 Y
Blackwell, Will 1997 2 3 Y
Dillon, Corey 1997 2 3 Y
Hanspard, Byron 1997 2 3 Y
Barber, Ronde 1997 3 3 Y
Davis, Troy 1997 3 3
Rodgers, Derrick 1997 3 3 Y
Wheaton, Kenny 1997 3 3 Y
Autry, Darnell 1997 4 1 Y
Mack, Tremain 1997 4 3 Y
Nails, Jamie 1997 4 3 Y
Sualua, Nicky 1997 4 2
Jackson, Grady 1997 6 3 Y
Battle, Terry 1997 7 1
Ismaeli, Hudhaifa 1997 7 0
Avg Career Length 2.92 23
Alvis, Ken 1997 0
Barrington, Brent 1997 0
Caudill, Jason 1997 0
Clay, Chianti 1997 0
Daniels, Tony 1997 0 Y
Krete, Derek 1997 0
McQueen, LeVance 1997 0 Y
Pegross, Pearce 1997 0 Y
Sellers, Michael 1997 0 Y 2 Y
Sinclair, Clarence 1997 0
Smith, Alex 1997 0 Y
Teninbaum, Gabe 1997 0
Thomas, Roderick 1997 0
Wells, Rodney 1997 0
White, C.J. 1997 0
Williams, C.J. 1997 0 Y
Avg Career Length 0.333 1
1998 TOTAL 31
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 8 26%
SECOND 2 6%
THIRD 3 10%
FOURTH 0 0%
FIFTH 2 6%
SIXTH 2 6%
SEVENTH 1 3%
UFA 4 13%
NO CONTRACT 9 29%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Collins, Mo 1998 1 2 Y
Enis, Curtis 1998 1 2 Y
Faneca, Alan 1998 1 2 Y
Leaf, Ryan 1998 1 2 Y
McQuarters, R.W. 1998 1 2 Y
Simmons, Anthony 1998 1 2 Y
Spikes, Takeo 1998 1 2 Y
Woodson, Charles 1998 1 2 Y
Green, Jacquez 1998 2 2 Y
Newberry, Jeremy 1998 2 2 Y
Green, Ahman 1998 3 2 Y
Kreutz, Olin 1998 3 2 Y
Trotter, Jeremiah 1998 3 2 Y
Olson, Benji 1998 5 2 Y
Williams, Robert 1998 5 1
Fuamatu-Ma'afala, Chris 1998 6 2 Y
Tucker, Jason 1998 6 1 Y
Thelwell, Ryan 1998 7 1 Y
17
Artmore, Rodney 1998 0 Y 1
Benton, Magic 1998 0 Y
Carr, Demetrius 1998 0
Coles, Toney 1998 0
Harley, Scott 1998 0
Henry, Lendon 1998 0
Hicks, Michael 1998 0 Y
Jacobs, Will 1998 0
Joseph, Carlo 1998 0
Richardson, Andre 1998 0
Shamsid-Deen, Hassan 1998 0 Y
Shea, Damon 1998 0
Wilcox, Brian 1998 0
0
1999 TOTAL 35
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 10 29%
SECOND 4 11%
THIRD 4 11%
FOURTH 3 9%
FIFTH 4 11%
SIXTH 0 0%
SEVENTH 0 0%
UFA 7 20%
NO CONTRACT 3 9%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Bailey, Champ 1999 1 1 Y
Boston, David 1999 1 1 Y
Claiborne, Chris 1999 1 1 Y
Couch, Tim 1999 1 1 Y
James, Edgerrin 1999 1 1 Y
Katzenmoyer, Andy 1999 1 1 Y
Kearse, Jevon 1999 1 1 Y
McGrew, Reggie 1999 1 1 Y
Underwood, Dimitrius 1999 1 0 Y
Woody, Damian 1999 1 1 Y
Abdullah, Rahim 1999 2 1 Y
Bly, Dre' 1999 2 1 Y
Page, Solomon 1999 2 1 Y
Smith, Larry 1999 2 1 Y
Farris, Kris 1999 3 1 Y
Huard, Brock 1999 3 1 Y
McKenzie, Mike 1999 3 1 Y
Zereoue, Amos 1999 3 1 Y
Irvin, Sedrick 1999 4 1 Y
Ware, Brad 1999 4 0 Y
Wright, Kenny 1999 4 1 Y
Bowens, David 1999 5 1 Y
Collins, Cecil 1999 5 1
Parker, DeMond 1999 5 1 Y
Scott, Yusuf 1999 5 1 Y
24
Beaudoin, Mathieu 1999 0
Collins, Leroy 1999 0 Y 1 Y
Denton, John 1999 0 Y 0
French, Rufus 1999 0 Y 0
Higgins, Charles 1999 0
Hulsey, Corey 1999 0 Y 0
Kirtsey, Torin 1999 0
Newkirk, Robert 1999 0 Y 0
Smith, Brian 1999 0 Y 0
Vaughn, Michael 1999 0 Y 0
1
2000 TOTAL 32
ROUND BY ROUND PERCENT
FIRST 6 19%
SECOND 5 16%
THIRD 4 13%
FOURTH 2 6%
FIFTH 1 3%
SIXTH 0 0%
SEVENTH 2 6%
UFA 5 16%
NO CONTRACT 7 22%
YEAR ROUND F A YEARS ACTIVE
Arrington, Lavar 2000 1
Burress, Plaxico 2000 1
Franks, Daniel 2000 1
Janikowski, Sebastian 2000 1
Lewis, Jamal 2000 1
Taylor, Travis 2000 1
Charlton, Ike 2000 2
Coleman, Cosey 2000 2
Grant, Deon 2000 2
Shepherd, Jacoby 2000 2
Smith, Marvel 2000 2
Jackson, Darrell 2000 3
Kelly, Ben 2000 3
Webster, Nate 2000 3
White, Dez 2000 3
Diggs, Na'il 2000 4
Sanders, Lewis 2000 4
Dennis, Patrick 2000 5
Brooks, Rodregis 2000 7
Stith, Shyrone 2000 7
Brader, David 2000 0
Cavil, Kwame 2000 0 Y
Dunlap, Jeffrey 2000 0
Gray, Jonathon 2000 0 Y
Hambrick, Julian 2000 0
Herring, Bud 2000 0
Jackson, Keith 2000 0 Y
Jenkins, Ronney 2000 0 Y
McDonald, Tariq 2000 0 Y
Peterson, Shaun 2000 0
Pollard, Robert 2000 0
Thompson, Hubert 2000 0
Ken Robinson
Founder/Pro Scout & Marketing Director
InterNATIONAL FOOTBALL SCOUTING
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http://leaguelineup.com/ifs-scouting
480-545-1256
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