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TOPIC: Rat's Sports Bureau Rankings for W1 of Season 15 |
| Shammas
July 17, 2014
3:33:29 PM
Entry #: 4136282
| It’s been a while since anyone has posted anything on here so I thought that it would be fitting for me to do so and get everyone even more riled up about the new season with the first week in the books and phones already ringing off the hook with trade proposals like we’re all working at the New York Stock Exchange. The first thing I’d like to say is that I commend Rat for putting out their odds again. It is not that easy to shit on so many people using a combination of numbers and a tainted perception of reality and fairness. I think it makes the games and league much more fun and brings in that extra intensity, heart, and competition that our league thrives on. It’s also interesting to know what PEOPLE are thinking before tipoff and then reading about what happened in the game summaries after the smoke has cleared. Unfortunately, however, Rat is not PEOPLE it’s just Ron and Pat. And they have a really bad track record when it comes to predicting the outcomes of games. I’m not saying it’s easy- it’s actually very, very hard to do precisely. But they are so well at being so wrong so often that I had to do an advanced statistical analysis to prove it mathematically to myself and everyone else in the league. The only person or group of people that have been more wrong than Rat about predicting things is Obama and the Democratic Party. Sure, granting broader access to doctors and accepting all pre-existing conditions while guaranteeing lower healthcare premiums to everyone sounds like a great thing. But does it make sense? Or was it just a way for Democrats to redistribute the wealth from the rich to the poor yet again and a take another step towards making America an immoral, socialist country? Let’s take a look at the details… shall we?
Tommy (+200)
Quintin (+250) [50 point increment]
Durance (+325) [75 point increment]
Mason (+375) [50 point increment]
Ron (+400) [25 point increment]
Zaid (+450) [50 point increment]
Duried (+525) [75 point increment]
Laurence (+750) [225 point increment]
Ivan (+800) [50 point increment]
So let’s make this a bit more easy for everyone to understand by dividing everything by the highest common factor (25, since it is the smallest increase and divides evenly into everything else) and break it down to raw, base numbers. In doing so, we get the following...
Tommy = 8 (that’s 200 divided by 25 for all you dumb fucks… follow the same advanced methodology downward)
Quintin = 10
Durance = 13
Mason = 15
Ron = 16
Zaid = 18
Duried = 21
Laurence = 30
Ivan = 32
And if we put these raw numbers next to the results from last night, we get…
Ron vs. Duried: 61 to 54 (16 to 21 in favor of Ron) [1.31]x
Quintin vs Zaid: 47 to 46 (10 to 18 in favor of Quintin) [1.8]x
Mason vs. Ivan: 54 to 65 (15 to 32 in favor of Mason) [2.13]x
Tommy vs. Laurence: 46 to 51 (8 to 30 in favor of Tommy) [3.75]x
So now that things look a little bit better, it’s a lot easier to compare teams and see how poorly Rat did in predicting future success. For example, Ivan’s team was the worst and Tommy’s was the best. But how far apart were they statistically? Comparing the numbers, we see that according to Rat, Tommy’s team was four times more likely to “Claim the Throne” than Ivan’s team. After last night, however, we see that Tommy is more likely to Claim the Trade Approval from the Board than “Claim the Throne” from the CBL.
Ivan upset the defending champs in what should have been a greater than 2x advantage for them. But as we have seen from recent history which was not taken into account when setting the odds, only a team led by his highness Duried Rabban comes back to 3peat after winning a championship. No other team has even done it twice in a row. And in the past three seasons, all championships teams have had a lot of trouble competing after winning. But that’s natural after a competitive draft in our league that keeps getting better as people continuously get better at drafting teams. Everyone wants to go down in history and is trying to murder everyone else out of jealousy and hatred. It’s a sick and twisted cultural game like the Godfather only in the context of basketball instead.
And how did Laurence’s team (the second least likely team to win the championship) fare? They actually played Tommy’s team, the most likely winner ALASAS, and won by 5 with a horrific showing by Claim the Teet! Tommy’s team shot a measly 16 for 60 and only had 25 rebounds! JACK EM UP BOYS! Either the shots will fall or you will! Shooting percentages and shot quality will also have to be addressed or Tommy’s printer will almost certainly be off the hook all week long with new dotted lines for fresh faces to sign. And if Rat’s is predicting that a team that came out and shot 16 for 60 has the best odds towards the trophy, then maybe it’s time we set some traps with cheese or glue pads in the corners of the YMCA.
I’d also like to point out that Rat conveniently and conservatively put themselves in the middle of the pack to avoid taking any risk amongst themselves (risk besides doing the odds and being completely wrong). There are 9 teams and if you look at the rankings, Rat falls at 4 and 5, in the middle of the pack. Rat gave the defending champs the higher ranking of the 2 thinking it only made sense because they were the defending champs and we haven’t recently seen defending champs struggle in their following seasons alasas. The bottom line: Rat should throw themselves under the bus every once in a while since they love doing it to others so much.
As much as I hate it, I will give them credit for getting one game accurate. Ron’s odds compared to Duried’s looked really good but as the night went on after 7pm, the relative odds just got more out of hand with Quintin being almost a 2x favorite to win but only ended winning by 1 point (the closest you can be to a win without being a tie). And the same reasoning applies to Ivan’s game but the ultimate disrespect this week came at 9PM when Laurence’s team was almost 4 times as likely to lose to Tommy. Shocker! It’s been 14 seasons and I guess we haven’t really learned that anyone can win yet (since our draft is done fairly). When anyone can win, it takes a lot of balls to put someone as 2 TIMES more likely to win the game. Or in a potential Tommy vs. Ivan matchup, 4 TIMES more likely. The truth is these relative odds should range from 1 to 1.5. It’s not like we’re playing teams from the Monday league. We’ve all been here for some time and even though rookies have recently been on the comeup in the CBL, it is still intensely competitive (even with the first and last ranked teams matching up) because the majority of people drafting know how the majority of people play.
In all honesty, I think Laurence and Ivan deserve an apology from Rat. The biggest incremental increase in odds came from Duried to Laurence jumping from + 525 to +750. And then they put Ivan another 50 points below that. It’s like trying to finish taking a shit but you don’t want to get up because you know there’s still more that needs to come out so you squeeze really hard to get that extra bit out of your ass so you can just wipe and call it a day. Well, that’s basically what Rat did to Ivan. They squeezed just a little bit harder on Ivan. And then Ivan came out on Wednesday and squeezed back twice as hard. But the difference is that Ivan’s shit stains are permanent and locked in history while Rat’s squeeze was just a little, temporary, hypothetical push.
Now two things could be going on here. Either 1) teams see the odds, get offended, effectively turn that into motivation, play hard and come out and WIN or 2) Rat is just really biased and not good at predicting CBL outcomes. I think it’s most likely a combination of the two factors but I would definitely say it is more heavily weighted towards the second because I love to shit on Rat. Either way they are doing themselves a disservice because they are either adding fuel to the fire or losing all credibility. This reminds of the pre-season power rankings that placed the Fakers right next to the Heat when LA signed Dwight Howard. Rat probably did those rankings too.
So next time you see the odds and feel they are unjustifiably against you, don’t get so down and blue! There’s good news: those odds were created by two morons that have very strong biases against certain people in our league for no good, apparent reason and have a horrible track record of predicting future outcomes. They’re not real rankings set in stone like the Chaldean village rankings that are written in the Bible and have been passed down for generations and can be traced all the way back to Duried Rabban’s ancestors. And they’re not as clear-cut either with Telkepnayas very far ahead at the top of the pack and alkoshys coming in at a distant but respectable second place while the rest of the villages just stare up in admiration. I know there are a lot of other villages out there but their names weren’t explicitly stated in the Bible so they’re obviously not important enough to mention. I didn’t write the book guys, I just follow it and accept it as the word of God.
The moral of the story is to take everything with a grain of salt. There are a lot of hateful, stupid people out there. Thank God I’m not one of them! As far as Rat is concerned, I think we could replace Rat with an ACTUAL RAT and have the odds be a lot more predictive of what will happen and what to expect in the coming weeks. All rats gotta die, even Mastaa Splintaa!
After this statistical crisis during the first week of play, I’d like to leave you all with a quote from the Bible to reflect upon: "Beware of the false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves.“ Matthew 7:15
P.S. Before posting this, Rat removed their odds from the main page as if what they did never actually happened and that everyone would simply forget about it and not make a big deal. That’s the same exact approach Obama is currently using to run this country and we all see how that is turning out. I suspect they will try to do the same and delete this once I post it. So if I go on and see that my post has been deleted, I will continuously repost every 5 minutes for the rest of my life until I die. If you get lucky and manage to click the link before they have deleted it and would like a permanent, PDF version of this posting, you can contact me at trevorshammas@Gmail.com (cuz I’m a motherfuckin’ G nigga)! Graphs, charts, excel spreadsheets, and powerpoint presentations are all available upon request. If you find any sort of mistakes in this posting, it is more likely that you don’t understand what I am saying than that I am actually wrong about something. In any case, only contact me or reply with positive reinforcement. Everything else will be discredited. And if you’re Rat, then you should be working really hard on those odds for next week and not have enough time to comment on anything. Spread the word guys! LeBron is back in Cleveland and Shammas is back on the message board. I know you guys have missed me. I’ll see you guys next week with more commentary and in-depth, unbiased analysis.
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| Patrick H
July 17, 2014
3:56:02 PM
Entry #: 4136285
| Trevor you obviously spent a lot of time on that post. Unfortunately for you, you did not read the title of the odds prediction. It says "Odds for Season 15 winner", that means winner of the championship. Champs you ulftie! Not the winner of one game, but the winner of the whole season! Don't jump the gun just yet. Wait a couple of games before you open your moronic mouth.
As as "Rat's" credibility, we are knowledgeable enough to draft teams that have won 6 championships, and 9 finals appearances between us. That's something a scrub like you will never accomplish.
Also, nobody removed the odds. I moved them to the odds board section of the website. Rat will be updating them weekly.
Sincerely,
Patrick Hesano
G.O.A.T.
5-time champ
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| Shammas
July 17, 2014
4:37:22 PM
Entry #: 4136292
| Pat,
Why aren't you working hard on the new odds for Week 2?
I understood that they were for the whole season but we only have one week of information so far to analyze. Your predictions for the entire season should still make a little bit of sense when looking at one week of information in isolation. So you're telling me you want everyone to wait 3 months until after the championship to say anything? And are you really that confident that your rankings will match with the final rankings after how they fared after against just one week of data rolling in?
As far as the odds being moved, I checked after they were taken down from the main page and they weren't yet updated on the Odds Board section yet. I guess you were taking your sweet ass time and probably added it after reading my post.
And I haven't played 14 seasons like everyone else but I do remember that the last time that we were both on the court, I threw you out of the playoffs...
And just because you won all your championships with Duried doesn't mean you can't also be biased. Ron is lucky he didn't have any bets to cover or else the nigga would be in a homeless shelter!
Get crackin on W2 my nigga!
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| R S 3
July 17, 2014
4:53:32 PM
Entry #: 4136294
| This coming from a guy that has one of the worst winning percentages in CBL History?
Also, you should have read what the odds were for like Pat said.
"Odds of Winning The Championship" YOU UFTIE!
But I figure you would miss the word Championship considering the fact that you have never won a ring.
It all makes sense now ...
odds are on the "Odds Board" link on the website, and will be updated every Thursday.
Good Luck Everyone
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| R S 3
July 18, 2014
12:32:23 AM
Entry #: 4136334
| Also Trevor ....
Nothing but the utmost respect to the founder of this great league!
Much love and respect.
Ron Shamoun
"Captain"
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