Championship picks: Here?s who will win every Idaho girls basketball state tournament

Idaho Statesman

February 16, 2022

BY MICHAEL LYCKLAMA UPDATED

The Idaho high school girls basketball tournaments descend upon the Treasure Valley this weekend. While the lifting of all fan restrictions marks a return to normal, the tournaments also enter a new era this year.

Idaho opted to seed all the state brackets by MaxPreps rankings this season. All teams still had to qualify for state via their district tournament. No one made it solely by their computer ranking. But the move aimed to end the yearly tradition of tournament favorites meeting in the first or second rounds.

So how well did it work? We’ll find out this week as the No. 1 seeds put their ranking  to the test. These are the teams to keep an eye on this weekend.

 

READ MORE CLASS 5A

THE FAVORITE: The 5A Southern Idaho Conference has won five of the past six state titles. But Lake City (20-3) headlines a loaded group from North Idaho shifting the balance of power. The Timberwolves finished second in the top bracket at the Tarkanian Classic in Las Vegas in December. Only a last-second shot rimming out prevented them from bringing a title from one of the country’s most prestigious tournaments. And they did it with just one senior on the roster. Three of the top teams in 5A resided in the Inland Empire League, according to the MaxPreps rankings. Escaping from that district tournament unscathed makes Lake City the team to beat.

THE CONTENDER: Timberline (22-2) finished the year No. 1 in the final state media poll. But the Wolves showed some cracks in the 5A District Three Tournament championship, going scoreless for the final 9 minutes, 3 seconds to fall in overtime to Boise. Thank you for supporting local journalism Your subscription allows us to provide our readers with quality, relevant journalism that makes a difference. We believe a platform for sharing local news is critical to our community – and we're glad you think so, too. Have questions about your subscription? We're happy to help. Contact us Northern Arizona signees Sophie Glancey (16.5 ppg, 9.5 rebounds) and Audrey Taylor (13.4 ppg, 3.5 assists, 3.0 steals) give Timberline two of the top weapons in the state. The Wolves also feature 5A’s toughest defense (33.3 ppg) and a coach with six state title rings in Andy Jones. Now it must put all those ingredients together for the program’s first title since 2003.

THE DARK HORSE: Boise (19-3) fields arguably the state’s most college talent. Three seniors have signed or committed to play at the next level, including 6-5 center Ashley Banks (Southern Utah). And sophomore Avery Howell already holds offers from Boise State and Montana. The Brave showed they can slay a giant last week, upsetting Timberline for the district title. Boise’s depth, top-line talent and hard-nosed defense (34.0 ppg, second best in 5A) make the Brave a threat for a deep run. Boise sophomore Avery Howell is one of several college prospects that make the Brave a dangerous team in the 5A state tournament.

 

CLASS 4A

THE FAVORITE: Reigning state champ Blackfoot (24-0) hasn’t cooled off since hanging a banner, winning 28 in a row with the same starting five from a year ago. That loaded group includes a pair of All-Idaho picks in seniors Hadley Humpherys, a two-time first-team selection, and Izzy Arave, a second-team pick. Blackfoot has steamrolled its way through the season, winning 18 of its 24 games by double digits. And it did it in the state’s toughest conference, according to MaxPreps. Four of the top six teams came from the High Country Conference.

THE CONTENDER: Burley (21-1) looms on the other side of the bracket with the state’s top defense (30.4 ppg) and a once-in-a-generation talent. Junior point guard Amari Whiting verbally committed to national power Oregon in November. She set four individual state records at last year’s tournament. And the reigning 4A All-Idaho Player of the Year enters averaging 27 points per game, half of the Bobcats’ 54.1. She thrives under the spotlight. A trip to the finals would provide her the biggest one yet.

THE DARK HORSE: Preston’s record (16-7) may not jump off the page. But the Indians have challenged themselves with one of the state’s toughest schedules, heading across the border into Utah and Wyoming for games. A balanced attack featuring Hailey Meek, Riley Ward and Mickayla Robertson keeps opponents honest. But Preston’s calling card is its defense, which ranks second in 4A at 31.5 points per game and allowed the Indians to give Blackfoot one of its biggest scares with a 31-28 loss in December.

 

CLASS 3A

THE FAVORITE: All eyes are on Sugar-Salem (19-2), which finished as the unanimous No. 1 in the state media poll and atop the MaxPreps rankings by a mile. Six of its seven rotation players played on last year’s state runner-up. Senior forward Hailey Harris (12.3 ppg, 7.1 rebounds) leads the way after second-team All-Idaho honors last year. Add in Kennedy Gillette (14.2 ppg) and Natalyah Nead (9.0 ppg, 6.7 rebounds), and defenses face a pick-your-poison option. Its only losses came to 4A state qualifiers Blackfoot (10 points) and Preston (two points).

THE CONTENDER: Snake River (20-5) has already lost two games to Sugar-Salem (by two points, then by 25). But the Panthers stand as the top challenger. Snake River enters having won 11 of its past 12 games. And it has victories over 5A Owyhee and Utah’s Real Salt Lake Academy under its belt, showing it has the weapons to topple anyone.

THE DARK HORSE: Fruitland (17-5) doesn’t have much state tournament pedigree. In fact, it hasn’t won a first-round game since 2003 and it hasn’t won any state tournament game since 2015. But the Grizzlies have already exceeded all expectations. Picked to finish third in the SRV, they swept the conference and district tournament titles with a junior-heavy lineup. Now they are playing with house money. Melba guards Hallie Arnold, right, and teammate Keylee Wilson dive for a loose ball in last year’s 2A state championship. They are two of four returning starters for the defending state champ.

 

CLASS 2A

THE FAVORITE: Reigning state champ Melba (19-3) returns four starters from a year ago. All four of them are sophomores or juniors. And all four of them average 10 or more points per game: Kendall Clark (11.8), Hallie Arnold (10.5), Keylee Wilson (10.2) and Brooklynn Dayley (10.1). That sets the Mustangs up for a multiyear run. But first they will have to survive a potential semifinal matchup with conference rival Cole Valley Christian.

THE CONTENDER: Cole Valley Christian (18-5) swept two regular-season meetings with Melba. But the Mustangs got revenge and took over the favorite spot with a 46-34 win for the district title last week. The Chargers’ guard-heavy lineup can run opponents out of the gym, evidenced by their unanimous No. 1 spot in the final state media poll. But Cole Valley must first slay some demons. It entered state last year as the No. 1 team before going two-and-out. A first-round matchup with perennial power Soda Springs didn’t do the Chargers any favors.

THE DARK HORSE: Grangeville (17-3) finished No. 1 in the MaxPreps rankings despite early losses to Melba (six points) and Cole Valley Christian (14 points). But the Bulldogs caught fire at the end of the season behind 2A’s top defense (31.1 ppg). Grangeville enters on a 13-game winning streak, and it beat opponents by an average of 28.4 points per game during that stretch.

 

CLASS 1A DIVISION I

THE FAVORITE: Perennial power Lapwai (18-3) returns to state for a 22nd straight time as the top overall seed. It’s not hard to see why. The Wildcats field the state’s top offense across all classifications (64.3 ppg). It owns a 20-point win over 2A power Cole Valley Christian. And it fields two reigning All-Idaho players in Grace Sobotta and Lauren Gould. Lapawi has finished first, second or third at state 13 years in a row. It’s just a question of which trophy it will bring home this time.

THE CONTENDER: Butte County (21-0) sports a sparkling resume. The undefeated Pirates beat their opponents by an average of 27.9 points per game. They finished No. 1 in the final state media poll. Three players average more than 10 points. And they hold opponents to 28.7 points per game. The only question that remains is their schedule. Butte County didn’t face any 1A Division I state qualifiers.

THE DARK HORSE: Prairie (18-4) looms on the opposite of the bracket from Lapwai, setting up a potential championship matchup for the sixth time in the past nine years. The Pirates topped Lapwai 55-47 on Jan. 22 as part of a 10-game winning streak, but Lapwai got revenge in the district title game.

 

CLASS 1A DIVISION II

THE FAVORITE: Rockland (21-1) heads to the Treasure Valley with the best record in Vern Nelson’s 26-year tenure. And 19 of those 21 wins came by double digits. Kiersley Boyer (14 ppg, 12 rebounds) and Ember Farr (11 ppg, 10 rebounds) give the Bulldogs two dominating figures in the paint. Both are reigning All-Idaho players and holdovers from Rockland’s 2020 state title team.

THE CONTENDER: Undefeated Council (16-0) would stand as the favorite most years. The Lumberjacks lead the classification at 57.3 points per game. And opponents can’t cheat toward any one threat, with five players averaging nine or more points per game. Council hasn’t won a first-round game since 1991, but veteran coach Paula Tucker provides the Lumberjacks with plenty of state tournament experience and has them ready to make history. T

HE DARK HORSE: Kendrick (17-6) made a surprise run to a second-place finish last year. But it won’t sneak up on anyone this time. A schedule that included Grangeville, Prairie and a trip to Florida gives the Tigers plenty of big-game experience. And a defense that holds opponents to 29.9 points per game is always a luxury come tournament time.

 

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