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PLAYOFF BUBBLE WATCH: IDAHO HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL PT. 3

Idaho Sports websirte

October 81, 2022

It's the final countdown! Who is playing for their playoff lives this week?
Published: 10/18/2022 8:46:43 AM
Brandon Baney
Managing Editor/Broadcaster
brandon@idahosports.com
 
One week of regular season competition remains.  Several conference titles were claimed a week ago, but the fact remains: the teams on the bubble will be fighting for their playoff lives this weekend.

We'll take one final look at the playoff bubble, and calculate which teams are projected to appear in the playoffs and which teams are destined to stay home.

In the case of conference races that feature multiple teams tied for first place, we'll defer to the team with the higher MaxPreps rating in our projections.  Overall records are listed first, followed by conference records.

Without further ado, let's get to Bubble Watching!
 
 
CLASS 1AD1

Berths Available

12 overall (9 automatic, 3 at-large)

District Representation

3 bids from District 2
2 bids from District 3
3 bids from District 4
1 bid from District 5-6
3 at-large bids (determined by MaxPreps rating)

Current Projected Field

Kamiah 7-1 6-0
Clearwater Valley 6-2 5-1
Lapwai 4-3 3-3
Notus 6-1 3-0
Idaho City 2-5 2-1
Oakley 6-1 5-0
Raft River 5-2 4-1
Carey 5-2 4-1
Butte County 5-1 1-0

Projected At-Large

Grace 6-1 1-0
Lighthouse Christian 2-5 2-3
Murtaugh 4-3 2-3

On the Bubble

Potlatch 4-3 3-3
Prairie 3-4 3-3
Logos 3-5 2-4
Rimrock 3-3 2-1

Projected Matchups

The four district champions automatically receive the top four seeds; seeds 5-12 will then be determined by MaxPreps rating.
The four district champions will also receive first round byes

(1) Oakley, (2) Butte County, (3) Kamiah and (4) Notus receive first round byes

(9) Murtaugh at (8) Lighthouse Christian
(12) Idaho City at (5) Carey
(10) Clearwater Valley at (7) Raft River
(11) Lapwai at (6) Grace

Oakley and Kamiah have officially clinched their district championships.  Notus can win District 3 with a victory over Rimrock, while the winner of Grace and Butte County will win District 5-6.

All of those teams are comfortably in, though.  The story in 1AD1 hasn't changed much over the past few weeks.  Lighthouse Christian and Murtaugh continue to have a stranglehold on the final two at-large bids, and we don't think there's anything the teams from District 2 can do about it.

Clearwater Valley officially has clinched second place in the Whitepine standings, and Lapwai, with a win over Genesee on Saturday afternoon, can sew up the third auto bid from the district.

Prairie picked a bad time to suffer through injuries, as the Pirates have dropped back-to-back contests against Clearwater Valley and Lapwai. 

The Pirates need to defeat Logos on Friday, and have Lapwai lose to Genesee to clinch a bid.  Even if Potlatch defeats Kamiah, they will have the same league record as Prairie, and the Pirates won the head-to-head matchup.

Potlatch can also get in with a win over Kamiah plus a Lapwai loss and a Prairie loss.

Now check this out: If Lapwai loses to Genesee, Potlatch defeats Kamiah, Prairie defeats Logos and Troy defeats Clearwater Valley, there would be a massive four-way tie for the third and final playoff spot.  All four teams would have 3-4 records, but....Lapwai would still get the third bid because the Wildcats defeated all of those teams.  

But what if Logos beats Prairie?  Lapwai, Potlatch, Logos and Troy would all have identical 3-4 records, but....we're told Lapwai would still have the third bid.  Essentially, any tiebreaker scenario favors Lapwai.

In District 3, the Idaho City Wildcats defeated Rimrock last Friday to put themselves in position to grab the second auto bid to state.  Rimrock needs to defeat Notus to even have a chance to get in now, as a Raiders win would force a three-way tie for first.  But it would have to be a convincing win, as the Pirates have the edge in point differential by a significant margin.