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Author |
TOPIC: 2018 Playoff Odds |
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| mdufault
June 27, 2018
3:11:47 PM
Entry #: 4252819
| Hi Everyone,
I built a model that can be used during the regular season to estimate each team's chance of getting each seed. I think you guys will find interesting and informative. I will update it every Wednesday after the results of Monday and Tuesday?s slate of games are in.
The output of the model is linked from the home page (under 2018 Playoff Odds). Here is the link for your convenience.
http://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1732167
The % chance of getting each seed is based on a simulation model that factors each team's run differential, remaining schedule, and the league's tie-breaker methodology.
I also tried to make the standings easier to interpret by listing each teams losses, games remaining, points percentage, and runs per game info. So you can more easily compare your team?s offense and defense to the rest of the league.
Enjoy.
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| mdufault
June 27, 2018
3:13:02 PM
Entry #: 4252820
| To make things interesting, I write do a brief write-up of the Big Movers (up and down) comparing the current playoff odds to last week?s playoff odds. Here goes for this week.
Moving Up
1. Cairney Homes (+13% to get a bye, +14% to get the 1 seed). Swept a doubleheader at Crosby last night, first against Starks Barber (putting up 38 runs), and Duchess. That increased their footing at a top 4 team for a bye, and puts them firmly in the race for the 1 seed.
2. Union (+21% to make playoffs). Swept a doubleheader at Milliken last night, against Crupi Law and The Roberts Group. The win against Crupi was a key one as they push for a playoff spot.
3. DST (+18% to get the 1 seed). DST has been crushing teams of late, and with Starks falling to Cairney, DST now has sole possession of first place and the best run differential in the A division.
4. McLean Hallmark (+15% to get the 1 seed). Beat a good Gregory Design team on Monday night, and have now won 7 games in a row after an 0-3-1 start.
5. MBL Landscaping (+21% to get 10 seed). Just keep rolling, and with Gregory Design losing to McLean Hallmark, now has a 2 loss lead over them for the 10 seed.
Moving Down
1. Starks Barber (-35% to get the 1 seed). Beat The School on Monday, but got crushed by Cairney Homes at Crosby on Tuesday, taking a huge bite out of their run differential, and their odds of getting the 1 seed.
2. Unionville Pool Boys (-19% to make playoffs). Lost a key game to Gregory Design on Tuesday, in what will likely be a close race for the 12 seed and final playoff spot with several other teams (Crupi Law, Union, Freedom 55 Financial).
3. Gregory Design (-20% to get 10 seed). They are still 89% to make the playoffs, but the loss to McLean Hallmark dropped them back in the race for the 10 seed with MBL Landscaping.
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| Jets6400
June 27, 2018
3:59:46 PM
Entry #: 4252822
| what happens if you only win one game all year ? not sure, but I believe that your journey back to the "B" division is real ?
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| Single malt
June 27, 2018
5:47:24 PM
Entry #: 4252829
| Can this be done for the masters
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| Bigelow
June 27, 2018
7:19:07 PM
Entry #: 4252835
| Great job, you could be the Leafs new GM next year.
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| Duchy
June 27, 2018
11:01:59 PM
Entry #: 4252840
| Impressive
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| Yaya
June 28, 2018
9:19:45 AM
Entry #: 4252854
| Agreed, the Masters data would be great.
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| Peatsum
June 28, 2018
8:06:57 PM
Entry #: 4252890
| If I comprehended you data accurately.... Union only has a 33% chance of making the show...., is that accurate
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| Bigelow
June 29, 2018
4:11:45 PM
Entry #: 4252916
| Many games to play. As a betting man I like the odds.
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| Duchy
June 30, 2018
2:40:44 PM
Entry #: 4252953
| well done............somersetting to ponder on a disgusting hot day
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| Anchor
July 2, 2018
11:35:51 AM
Entry #: 4253041
| Some playoff odds have reached so low in July. That doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence heading into the second half of the season.
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| Knight
July 3, 2018
5:05:36 AM
Entry #: 4253087
| Anchor, you got quite the symbolic name. You and your team needs to play better to chalk up a few more wins, that is how confidence grows.
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| MBA89
July 3, 2018
11:18:40 AM
Entry #: 4253107
| Knowing how to solve a math problem is about 10% of what goes into learning to play slo pitch. Understanding how players are constructing hitting knowledge, their social-emotional orientation toward the game, managing teammates in a peer setting, assessment, and much more is the rest.
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| mdufault
July 3, 2018
4:41:38 PM
Entry #: 4253119
| There were a few comments/questions that I wanted to address.
Is the journey back to the B division real?
I'm not on the executive, but I expect the promotion and delegation is the same as last year. So the bottom two A teams (seeds 8-9) move down to the B division next year, and the top two B teams (seeds 10-11) move up to the A division next year. So you can also use the Playoff Odds table to see which teams are likely to move up/down for next season.
Is to too early to say who will make the playoffs or not? Should we wait until the end of July?
After roughly the 30% mark in the season, is the first reasonable chance to look at the early returns for each team.
It?s like the 5 game mark in the NFL season. It's long enough to tell a story for each team, and give some others a wake-up call. After tonight, the league will hit the 51% mark. So still a lot of season left, but the standings are already starting to take shape.
Is Union having a 33% chance of making the playoffs accurate?
33% is their current estimate. As results come in, the odds for everyone changes (like after a flop in poker). So after more games and scores come in (cards drawn), we will have an even better idea of every team?s odds.
Can this be done for the masters?
I won?t be doing it for the masters this year, but hopefully we can next season.
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| mdufault
July 4, 2018
2:18:42 PM
Entry #: 4253157
| Here are the Big Movers (up and down) for the games this week.
Moving Up
1. DST (+5% to get a bye, +28% to get 1 seed). Had two dominant wins this week, first against Active Health Center on Monday, then against Starks Barber on Tuesday. They are now firmly in the driver?s seat for the 1 seed, as they now have a 1.5 loss lead over Cairney Homes and McLean Hallmark.
2. MBL (+9% to get 10 seed). Won two more games against teams clawing for a playoff spot in Freedom 55 Financial and Union. They are now 87% to get the 10 seed. Only Gregory Design has a material chance to catch them.
3. Gregory Design (+7% to make playoffs). Beat The School this week in a divisional cross-over game. They are now 96% to make the playoffs, and 86% to get the 10 or 11 seed.
4. Unionville Pool Boys (+18% to make playoffs). Beat Town + Country VW, but saw its 3 other main competitors for the 12 seed (Crupi Law, Union, Freedom 55 Financial) all lose a game this week resulting in an increase to their playoff chances. They get DST next week.
Moving Down
1. Starks Barber (-15% to get a bye, -20% to get 1 seed). Got crushed by DST, dropping them from 2nd to a tie for 4th place with Harding Display. Their odds of getting a 1 seed are now down to 4%, so the focus for them is finishing in the top 4 and securing a bye.
2. Union (-11% to make playoffs). Lost a 1 run game to division leading MBL Landscaping. They are now 2 losses behind Crupi for the 12 seed, but have a slightly better chance than them at making the playoffs (22% vs. 13%) due to an easier remaining schedule. They play Crupi Law in a key game next week, and with a win can clinch the season series.
3. Crupi Law (-10% to make playoffs). Lost to Duchess in a divisional cross-over game. Of the 4 teams fighting for the final playoff, they currently have the lowest odds at 13%. Next week they have two key games against Union and Gregory Design that will go a long way towards determining if they make the playoffs or not.
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| Jets6400
July 5, 2018
4:57:32 PM
Entry #: 4253199
| Mark,
Your data give us loads of information that we should all strive to improve on our numbers.
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| tuck00
July 6, 2018
2:40:35 AM
Entry #: 4253215
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On paper, yes you data is good. For example.... the teams that have the ability to play with the leather is something only a few teams can do and if they combined that with power hitting could be scary for opposing teams. Obviously, it is a bit early..... so parade planners may want to store the confetti until we see what the results looks like on by early August.
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| CC & Coke
July 7, 2018
12:17:58 AM
Entry #: 4253276
| It may be early but each game counts to the final standings and ultimately where you start the playoffs.
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| silverfox
July 9, 2018
6:01:39 AM
Entry #: 4253376
| Listen disappointment that we will not have the Masters data. Why are we waiting until next year?
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| Local 1134
July 9, 2018
4:16:40 PM
Entry #: 4253417
| Not sure I truly understand this stuff.
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| Yaya
July 10, 2018
9:43:43 AM
Entry #: 4253465
| Well.... that is kinda odd !
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| Network Man
July 10, 2018
3:32:22 PM
Entry #: 4253514
| This data is very useful to plan your night. If you got a chance show up if you can?t perform, don?t bother.
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| Birkey
July 10, 2018
8:31:58 PM
Entry #: 4253534
| Not sure why we would wait until next year for Masters data.
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| xamer
July 11, 2018
1:17:23 PM
Entry #: 4253587
| Where is the updated odds ...... moving up!
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| mdufault
July 11, 2018
6:54:58 PM
Entry #: 4253619
| The playoff odds table can be found on the home page (under 2018 Playoff Odds). The link is also below.
http://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1732167
Here are the Big Movers (up and down) for the games this week.
Moving Up
1. DST (+16% 1 seed). DST churned out two more wins this week over McCalmont Financial and Unionville Pool Boys. But with Cairney Homes losing twice this week, that likely pushed Cairney out of the running for the 1 seed, and those extra percentages all went to DST, who is now 80% to claim the 1 seed.
2. Freedom 55 Financial (+18% to make playoffs). Upset Cairney Homes on Tuesday, which greatly boosted their playoff odds from 14% to 32%. They get Xterra Landscapes next week, then in a one week stretch they play MBL Landscaping, Starks Barber, and Harding Display. That stretch may likely determine their playoff fate.
3. Harding Display (+26% to get a bye). The upset by Freedom 55 Financial over Cairney Homes resulted in Cairney's odd of getting a bye decreasing, and the extra mostly went to Harding Display, who despite being ahead by 1.5 losses over Cairney, look to be neck and neck to get a bye at 55-60% chance each.
Moving Down
1. Cairney Homes (-35% to get a bye, -11% to get 1 seed). Lost twice this week to McLean Hallmark and Freedom 55 Financial. With DST continuing to dominate, Cairney's chance of getting the 1 seed now seems to be gone, but they still have a 56% chance of getting a bye.
2. Unionville Pool Boys (-10% to make playoffs). Lost to DST this week, but the reason for their odds decreasing was due to Freedom 55 Financial?s upset over Cairney Homes. Playoff odds are a zero sum game, so for every team to move up, somebody must move down. They currently have the best odds of getting the 12 seed, but at 45% it?s likely going to be a race to the finish. They play The Roberts Group and Duchess next week.
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| RRForever
July 14, 2018
6:38:38 AM
Entry #: 4253760
| The data is nice, why not the Masters?
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| Yaya
July 16, 2018
9:17:10 AM
Entry #: 4253858
| The 18 data has all of the Masters info you need.
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| Bigelow
July 20, 2018
7:55:09 PM
Entry #: 4254219
| Updates ????
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| mdufault
July 21, 2018
7:47:14 PM
Entry #: 4254270
| I sent the updated odds table to the commish on Wednesday. I'm just waiting for him to post it. Once he does then I'll post the write up.
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| mdufault
July 22, 2018
11:50:33 PM
Entry #: 4254330
| Playoff Odds Table
http://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1732167
Here are the Big Movers (up and down) for the games this week.
Moving Up
1. Gregory Design (+11% to get 10 seed). MBL Landscaping went 1-1 (lost to the School, then beat Freedom 55 Financial), which coupled with their win over Active Health Center, transferred a 11% chance of getting the 10 seed to them, and reduced MBL Landscaping's lead to 1 loss.
2. Unionville Pool Boys (+12% to make playoffs). Beat the Duchess on Tuesday, and Freedom 55 Financial lost on Thursday to MBL Landscaping, bumping their probability of making the playoffs to 57%.
3. Union (+8% to make playoffs). Upset McLean Hallmark where they were 38% to win. Union's odds of making the playoffs are now at 27%.
4. DST (+5% to get 1 seed). McLean Hallmark lost to Union, which increased DST's odds of securing the top seed to 85%. They now have a 2 loss lead over Starks Barber and Harding Display for the 1 seed, with McLean Hallmark falling back to 4th.
Moving Down
1. Freedom 55 Financial (-18% to make playoffs). Went 1-1 this week beating Xterra Landscapes and losing to MBL Landscaping (as you might have expected). But with Union beating McLean Hallmark and Unionville Pool boys beating Duchess, their probability of making the playoffs dropped from 32% to 14%. They have 2 tough games in the next week against Starks Barber and Harding Display.
2. MBL Landscaping (-11% to get 10 seed). Lost to the School as 77% favourites on Tuesday, then beat Freedom 55 Financial on Thursday. In the race with Gregory Design to get the 10 seed, their chances from dropped from 80% to 69%.
3. McLean Hallmark (-9% to get 1 seed). Were upset by Union on Tuesday, decreasing their chances of getting the 1 seed from 16% to 7%. They are still at 94% chance of getting a bye. So they are still sitting pretty.
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| mdufault
August 1, 2018
1:59:11 PM
Entry #: 4255268
| Playoff Odds Table
http://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1732167
Here are the Big Movers (up and down) for the games in the last two weeks (since last week most of the games were rained out).
Moving Up
1. Starks Barber (+12% to get a bye, +48% to get a top 2 seed). Went 4-1 in the last two weeks, with wins over McLean Hallmark twice, Duchess, and Town + Country, while losing to Freedom 55 Financial. The result is that Starks Barber is now >99% to get a bye, and their odds of getting a top 2 seed have gone up from 33% to 81%.
2. Cairney Homes (+9% to get a bye). Went 1-1 with a win over Gregory Design and a loss to DST. Their win over Gregory Design increased their odds of getting a bye from 53% to 62%, and put them as 4th most likely to get a bye, ahead of Harding Display.
3. MBL Landscaping (+15% to get the 10 seed). Only played once, losing to DST. But with Gregory Design losing twice (to Duchess and Cairney Homes), MBL Landscaping increased their lead to 2 losses, boosting their chances to taking to 10 seed to 84%.
4. Freedom 55 Financial (+7% to make playoffs). Went 1-1 in the last two weeks with a win over Starks Barber and a loss to The School. Their probability of making the playoffs is now up to 21% with 6 games remaining.
Moving Down
1. McLean Hallmark (-12% to get a bye, -42% to get a top 2 seed). Went 1-2 in the last two weeks, beating Xterra Landscapes, while losing twice to Starks Barber. McLean Hallmark still has an 82% chance of getting a bye, but their odds of getting a top 2 seed dropped from 52% to 10%, transferring most of their odds to Starks Barber. They have the week off next week before playing 4 straight games against the B division.
2. Harding Display (-17% to get a bye). Split in the last two weeks with a win over McCalmont Financial and a loss to The School. They are currently tied for 2nd with Starks Barber with 5 losses, but they have 6 more games left to play than Starks Barber. Currently they have the 5th best odds of getting a playoff bye at 47%.
3. Unionville Pool Boys (-11% to make playoffs). Went 0-1-1 in the last two weeks with a tie versus The Roberts Group and a loss to Active Health Center. They are still the most likely team to get the 12 seed, but their odds have decreased from 57% down to 46%. They play two games at Crosby next week against Starks on Tuesday, and Union on Thursday. The game on Thursday against Union in particular will be super important as the two teams battle for that final playoff spot.
4. Gregory Design (-15% to get the 10 seed). Lost both games in the last two weeks, first against Duchess, then against Cairney Homes. They are still >99% to make the playoffs, but their odds of taking the 10 seed decreased from 31% to 16%.
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| CC & Coke
August 3, 2018
10:43:25 AM
Entry #: 4255429
| Are these numbers revelant if the home team does not bat in the bottom of the inning?
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| Cashman
August 6, 2018
2:56:18 PM
Entry #: 4255693
| Playing the bottom of the last inning is just a waste of time. Give your head a shake pal.
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| mdufault
August 8, 2018
6:08:31 PM
Entry #: 4255899
| Playoff Odds Table
http://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1732167
Let's try a slightly different format this week. The big movers (up and down) are split into 3 categories, based on what's at stake for each team.
1 Seed
(+) Starks Barber (+16% to get 1 seed). Beat Unionville Pool Boys on Tuesday, but they moved up because Union upset DST. Starks is now 32% to get the 1 seed.
(-) DST (-18% to get 1 seed). Split this week with a win against The School, and lost to Union as 73% favourites. DST is still the favourite to claim the 1 seed with a 64% chance. They play Harding Display the next two games in a series that will likely affect the top seeds.
Bye
(+) Harding Display (+31% to get a bye, +26% to get a top 3 seed). Harding Display went 2-0 this week with wins over Xterra Landscapes and MBL Landscaping. They are now 78% to get a first-round bye.
(-) Cairney Homes (-26% to get a bye). Split this week losing to The Roberts Group on Monday (as 66% favourites), then won a close game over McCalmont Financial. Their odds of getting a bye have dropped from 62% to 36%.
Make Playoffs
(+) Union (+41% to make playoffs). The story of the week has to be Union's upset over DST. Union also beat McCalmont Financial last Thursday. With the win, Union has increased their playoff odds from 32% to 73%. Union plays Unionville Pool Boys tomorrow, in what could decide the final outcome of the 12 seed. With a win over Unionville Pool Boys, Union's chance of making the playoffs would jump up to 96%. With a loss, they would be at 42% (while Unionville Pool Boys would be a 50%). The reason for Union having a 96% chance to make the playoffs with a win is that they would clinch the tie-breaker over Unionville Pool Boys due to having a better divisional record. So Union could come very close to punching their playoff ticket tomorrow night. That's not something anybody could have known (to that level of certainty) without the model.
(-) Unionville Pool Boys (-23% to make playoffs). Lost to Starks Barber this week. But their odds of making the playoffs were more impacted by Union's upset over DST than anything else. They need to win against Union on Thursday night, otherwise they are likely Conny bound.
(-) Freedom 55 Financial (-17% to make playoffs). Lost to Duchess last night. Their playoff odds dropped this week from 21% to 4%. They have been on the outside looking in for a couple weeks now, but after losing 3 of their last 4, they haven't been able to make a move up the standings.
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| Network Man
August 13, 2018
9:01:39 AM
Entry #: 4256224
| Great stuff, please keep them coming.
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| Peatsum
August 16, 2018
9:03:47 AM
Entry #: 4256392
| Where is the data
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| mdufault
August 16, 2018
2:06:22 PM
Entry #: 4256403
| Playoff Odds Table
The location of the playoff odds table has changed. To access it from the home page, you need to click on Updated 2018 Playoff odds. The new link address is provided below.
https://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1740830
I also want to mention it's nice to see people adopting the lingo and analysis in their discussion on other message threads. I hope you guys find the information from the playoff odds stuff interesting and informative.
The big movers (up and down) are split into 4 categories, based on what's at stake for each team.
1 Seed
(+) DST (+17% to get 1 seed, +7% to get top 2 seed). Beat Harding Display while Starks Barber lost to MBL Landscaping. So DST is now 81% to get the 1 seed, and >99% to get a top 2 seed.
(-) Starks Barber (-13% to get 1 seed, +4% to get top 2 seed). Split this week getting a win over Crupi Law and losing to MBL Landscaping at Crosby. Two of the teams chasing Starks Barber dropped games this week, resulting in their odds of getting a top 2 seed going up to 93% despite losing themselves. Harding Display went 0-1-1 and McLean Hallmark went 1-1 this week, giving Starks Barber an outright lead in 2nd place with 2 games left.
Bye
(+) Cairney Homes (+17% to get a bye). Cairney Homes beat Crupi Law this week, but the reason for their movement was Harding Display getting a tie against Gregory Design then losing to DST. Cairney is now at 53% to get a bye, and is basically neck-and-neck with Harding Display in terms of getting a bye.
(-) Harding Display (-21% to get a bye). Tied Gregory Design on Monday night, then lost to DST on Tuesday. Their odds of getting a bye are now at 57%. They are currently in 3rd place with 6.5 losses (1 ahead of Cairney Homes and McLean Hallmark), but have 7 games left compared to 4-5 with for their competitors. Harding Display plays DST again on Monday, where they are 37% to win as underdogs.
10 Seed
(+) MBL Landscaping (+26% to get 10 seed). Beat Starks Barber, while Gregory Design went 0-1-1 this week. MBL Landscaping is now 97% to take the 10 seed. So they have it almost completely locked up.
(-) Gregory Design (-24% to get 10 seed). Tied Harding Display and lost to The Roberts Group. They are still >99% to make the playoffs and 94% to get the 10 or 11 seed. So while the 10 seed is almost out of their sight, they are still super likely to get the 11 seed.
Make Playoffs
(+) Unionville Pool Boys (+19% to make playoffs). The 12 seed keeps being a game of punch and counter-punch. This week Unionville Pool Boys beat McLean Hallmark, while Union lost to The School. The result is that Unionville Pool Boys now has a 42% chance of making the playoffs, just slightly less than Union.
(-) Union (-23% to make playoffs). While Union is 1 loss behind Unionville Pool Boys, they have slightly better playoff odds at 50%. The game between them and Unionville Pool last Thursday was rescheduled to Sept 10. Both teams will like keep trading punches until they face each other in their final game of the regular season in what could shape up to be a playoff like elimination game.
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| Duchy
August 19, 2018
8:21:03 PM
Entry #: 4256522
| Very interesting data.
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| JAG 28
August 20, 2018
3:40:16 PM
Entry #: 4256556
| Very boring data
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| Birkey
August 25, 2018
4:50:01 AM
Entry #: 4256682
| Why does this man come on here an insult everyone. Must be really really inscuere.
Updates?????
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| mdufault
August 25, 2018
1:53:45 PM
Entry #: 4256692
| I'm just waiting for the scores for the 3 remaining games left from Tuesday. Once those scores come in, or if those games show up as rescheduled, then I'll send the commish the updated numbers.
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| Bill T
August 25, 2018
4:44:46 PM
Entry #: 4256701
| Weren't the 6:30 games postponed due to rain, and a team no-showed for the 8:00?
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| JAG 28
August 25, 2018
8:08:11 PM
Entry #: 4256709
| Birkey,did you just insult me - you must really be insecure
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| mdufault
August 27, 2018
6:13:33 PM
Entry #: 4256772
| Playoff Odds Table
https://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1740830
The updated playoff odds table for games up to Thur Aug 23 is now up. I will update this thread again on Wednesday once the Monday and Tuesday results are up.
The big movers (up and down) for this week are below.
Bye
(+) McLean Hallmark (+10% to get a bye). Beat Crupi Law, inching closer to earning a bye, now up to a 93% chance.
(+) Cairney Homes (+6% to get a bye). Split last week with a loss to MBL Landscaping and a win against The School. The result was their odds of getting a bye actually increased from 53% to 59%. This week they play Unionville Pool Boys.
(-) Harding Display (-12% to get a bye). Lost to Unionville Pools. They are currently 1 loss ahead of Cairney Homes who is in 5th, but Harding Display still has six games left compared to Cairney Homes' two. As a result Harding Display is 45% to get a bye, while Cairney Homes is at 59% Harding Display plays Duchess on Monday and Starks Barber on Tuesday.
8 Seed
-I wouldn't normally write about teams having a rough season, but there has been a good amount of chatter on the forum on who might get moved down to the B division, so since it seems of interest to people, I will do analysis for the 8 seed going forward.
-Active Health Center has a 52% chance of getting the 8 seed, The School is at 33%, and Duchess is at 13%. Each team went 1-1 last week, and as a result there were no material changes to any of the teams odds.
Make Playoffs
(+) Unionville Pool Boys (+23% to make playoffs). Beat Harding Display by 1 as the home team (possible walk-off?). With Union and Freedom 55 Financial each losing a game, they now have a 2 loss lead with 4 games to go. Their odds of making the playoffs have gone up from 42% to 65%.
(-) Union (-16% to make playoffs). Lost to Gregory Design, decreasing their playoff odds from 50% down to 34%.
(-) Freedom 55 Financial (-8% to make playoffs). Won against McCalmont Financial then lost to Active Health Center. With 2 games left, and no more games against the two teams they are chasing (Unionville Pool Boys or Union), Freedom 55 Financial now has a <1% chance of making the playoffs. This week they play DST in a must win game to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
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| LB4LB
August 27, 2018
7:46:20 PM
Entry #: 4256775
| How does Crupi get a bye?
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| Network Man
August 29, 2018
1:01:28 AM
Entry #: 4256833
| This data is next level stuff. Me likes.
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| Bill T
August 29, 2018
5:44:17 AM
Entry #: 4256835
| Data didn't factor in strength of schedule for the 8th seed information. Or the numbers were way off. Way off.
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| mdufault
August 29, 2018
2:53:53 PM
Entry #: 4256852
| Playoff Odds Table
https://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1740830
The big movers (up and down) for this week are below.
1 seed
DST clinched the 1 seed this week due to their win over Freedom 55 Financial and Starks Barber's loss to Harding Display. Congrats to DST on another incredible year, and getting the 1 seed for the third year in a row.
Bye
(+) Harding Display (+28% to get a bye, +34% to get a top 3 seed). Went 2-0 this week over Duchess on Monday and had a walk-off home run to beat Starks Barber at Crosby on Tuesday. They are now 73% to get a bye, and 48% to get a top 3 seed.
(-) McLean Hallmark (-13% to get a bye, -32% to get a top 3 seed). Lost to Duchess on Tuesday at Crosby with a walk-off home run. So the fans at Crosby were treated to back to back walk-off bombs. They now have an 80% chance of getting a bye, and a 30% chance of getting a top 3 seed.
(-) Cairney Homes (-12% to get a bye). Lost to Unionville Pool Boys this week. Cairney Homes has one game left, against Harding Display on the last game of the regular season schedule on Sept 11. If Cairney Homes wins that game, they would win the tie-breaker over Harding Display due to a better divisional record (10-5-1 for Cairney Homes vs. 8-7 for Harding Display). Likely the winner of that game will get a first-round bye.
8 Seed
(+) Duchess (can't get the 8 seed). Duchess beat McLean Hallmark, which meant that Duchess clinched a top 7 seed, and thus will stay in the A division next year. The reason they clinched already is that Duchess clinched the tie-breaker over Active Health Center due to a better divisional record (7-9 for Duchess vs. 4-8-3 for Active Health Center).
(+) The School (-31% to get 8 seed). The School beat Roberts Group, while Active Health Center were swept by the landscapers Xterra and MBL. The School now has a 1.5 loss lead over Active Health Center with 3 games to go, which are against the bottom 3 B division teams. The end result is that The School is now only 2% to get the 8 seed.
(-) Active Health Center (+46% to get 8 seed). Went 0-2 this week against Xterra Landscapes and MBL Landscaping. Active is now 98% to get the 8 seed, and will mostly move down to the B division next year.
10-11 Seed
MBL Landscaping clinched the 10 seed with their win over Crupi Law and Gregory Design's loss to DST. MBL Landscaping will play the 7 seed in the first round of the playoffs.
Gregory Design clinched the 11 seed on Tuesday with their win over McCalmont Financial. They clinched the 11 seed because they own the tiebreaker over Unionville Pools due to beating them twice. Gregory Design will play the 6 seed in the first round of the playoffs.
Make Playoffs
(+) Unionville Pool Boys (+7% to make playoffs). Beat Cairney Homes this week. In the last two weeks they have gone 3-0 against McLean Hallmark, Harding Display, and Cairney Homes. So they are peaking at the right time. They have a 2 loss lead over Union with 2 games before they meet on Sept 10. So if Unionville Pool Boys can beat both Xterra Landscapes and The Roberts Group next week, they will clinch the final playoff spot before they play Union. They are currently sitting at 72% odds to make the playoffs.
(-) Union (-6% to make playoffs). Beat Xterra Landscapes as the home team by 1 run at Milliken (so possibly another walk-off win). They will need help from Xterra Landscapes and The Roberts Group to help make their game against Unionville Pool be a defacto playoff game for the final playoff spot. The odds one of Xterra Landscapes or The Roberts Group beat Unionville Pool Boys is 55%. If Union beats Unionville Pool Boys, they would win the tie-breaker due to a better divisional record (10-6 for Union vs. 7-7-1 for Unionville Pool Boys).
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| Network Man
August 30, 2018
3:05:19 PM
Entry #: 4256894
| Incredible information from data analyst perspective. The whole playoff picture is so much brighter now.
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| HR Leader
August 31, 2018
1:01:18 PM
Entry #: 4256934
| Put simply, data is used to provide insight. Teams or individuals, when armed with this, are able to improve the gameday decisions they make. This isn?t just for the captain /coach, either ? it applies from teach player on the roster. However, data is rarely useful in its raw state it must be processed and presented in a way that works on the appropriate levels so that it can be applied and understood properly. Analytics tools like the playoff odds and the 18 data make this part much easier, but there is still a journey that information must follow before it?s usable.
If data accuracy levels are low at the start of this process, the insight will be lacking and the decisions it influences are likely to be poor as a result. This is why teams must realise that quality is more important that quantity too many focus only on gathering as much information as possible without thinking about whether it?s correct (error or hit) and how it can be used.
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| mdufault
September 5, 2018
1:16:07 PM
Entry #: 4257031
| Playoff Odds Table
https://www.leaguelineup.com/topnews.asp?url=uspl&itemid=1740830
Last week there were a few seeds that were already clinched.
1 DST
10 MBL Landscaping
11 Gregory Design
A few additional seeds were clinched this week.
2 Starks Barber due Harding Display's loss to Freedom 55 Financial.
8 Active Health Center due to The School's win over McCalmont Financial on Monday, and Active Health Center's loss to McLean Hallmark on Tuesday. So they will move down to the B division next year.
12 Unionville Pools due to their win over Xterra Landscapes on Monday, and their tie against The Roberts Group at Crosby on Tuesday.
So the 12 playoffs teams are set. The 3 teams from the B division that made the playoffs are MBL Landscaping, Gregory Design, and Unionville Pools. Congrats guys.
The 3 through 7 seeds are still to be decided, including 3 teams fighting for the two remaining first-round byes.
3-5 Seeds
(+) McLean Hallmark (+19% to get a bye, +26% to get the 3 seed). McLean Hallmark's win over Active Health Center coupled with Harding Display's loss to Freedom 55 Financial put McLean Hallmark at >99% chance of getting a bye. Their two remaining games next week are against MBL Landscaping on Monday and Town + Country VW on Tuesday.
(-) Harding Display (-16% to get a bye, -28% to get a top 3 seed). Harding Display lost to Freedom 55 Financial on Tuesday. Their three remaining games in the next week are against Town + Country VW on Thursday, DST on Monday, and Cairney Homes on Tuesday. If Harding Display wins all three remaining games, they would get the 3 seed as they would win the tiebreaker over McLean Hallmark due to a better divisional record (10-6 for Harding Display vs. 9-6-1 for McLean Hallmark).
(-) Cairney Homes (-4% to get a bye, -4% to get the 3 seed). Did not play this week. Has one game left against Harding Display, which will likely determine who gets the final first round bye.
6-7 Seeds
(+) Duchess (73% to get the 6 seed). Won over McCalmont Financial this week. Duchess is up by 0.5 losses over The School and both teams have one game left. Duchess owns the tiebreaker due to having a better divisional record (7-9 for Duchess vs. 6-9-1 for The School). So if Duchess gets a win or a tie against The Roberts Group on Monday, they will clinch a top 6 seed and play Gregory Design in the first round of the playoffs. Duchess could finish as high as the 5 seed if Harding Display loses all three of their remaining games, starting with Town + Country VW on Thursday.
(-) The School (27% to get the 6 seed). Won over Town + Country VW on Tuesday to keep pace with Duchess. They need Duchess to lose to The Roberts Group on Monday (or Harding Display to lose to both Town + Country VW and DST), otherwise, they will clinch the 7 seed before they play on Tuesday. If Harding Display loses all 3 of their remaining games, and The School beats Crupi Law on Tuesday, The School would finish ahead of Harding Display due to winning the season series 2-0.
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| Empress Ruler
September 7, 2018
12:03:00 PM
Entry #: 4257092
| This stuff is amazing.
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| JAG 28
September 8, 2018
4:07:19 PM
Entry #: 4257130
| What's the odds of me getting laid this weekend?
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| Blaster
September 9, 2018
9:19:33 PM
Entry #: 4257155
| stat-man..... ignore the haters and the ancient............I have been a fan since the playoffs last year when you started this data review with possabilities
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| GOAT!
September 9, 2018
9:34:08 PM
Entry #: 4257156
| What are the odds that Starks will field more than 10 guys per game during the playoffs and suit up there full roster and not leave the other 5 out of the lineup?
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| Sultan of the swing
September 10, 2018
12:50:23 PM
Entry #: 4257175
| slim to none..........they will show up with only ten
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| Steaner Jr
September 10, 2018
10:32:18 PM
Entry #: 4257186
| Michigan stinks
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| mdufault
September 12, 2018
11:47:05 AM
Entry #: 4257237
| There is just one regular season game remaining (McLean Hallmark vs. MBL Landscaping) which will be played on Thursday night. The result of that game will determine who gets the 3 seed and 4 seed between McLean Hallmark and Harding Display.
McLean Hallmark has already won the tie-breaker over Harding Display. They both split the season series 1-1, and had the same divisional record at 9-6-1. So the tie-breaker would be head-to-head run differential, where McLean Hallmark wins it 35-31 (+4) over Harding Display.
So if McLean Hallmark wins or ties against MBL Landscaping, then McLean Hallmark gets the 3 seed and Harding Display gets the 4 seed.
If McLean Hallmark loses to MBL Landscaping, then Harding Display gets the 3 seed and McLean Hallmark gets the 4 seed.
In terms of playoff matchups, here's what we know
All the first round playoff matchups are set
5 Cairney Homes vs. 12 Unionville Pool Boys
6 Duchess vs. 11 Gregory Design
7 The School vs. 10 MBL Landscaping
8 Active Health Center vs. 9 Xterra Landscapes
The potential second round playoff matchups are
1 DST plays winner of 8 Active Health Center vs. 9 Xterra Landscapes
2 Starks Barber plays winner of 7 The School vs. 10 MBL Landscaping
3 seed plays winner of 6 Duchess vs. 11 Gregory Design
4 seed plays winner of 5 Cairney Homes vs. 12 Unionville Pool Boys
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| 24suited
September 15, 2018
9:17:32 AM
Entry #: 4257330
| All I do is line the fields but I saw that Starks only had 9 players again last week so let?s hope they have 10 for the playoffs. Nice guys though, they always offer to help chalk the lines with me!
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